Iran’s Multiple Attacks Set the Middle East on Fire
Why did Iran attack Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan, and what are its implications in the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas war?
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Iran’s Multiple Attacks Set the Middle East On Fire
Iran’s multiple attacks in Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan further escalated tensions in the Middle East this week.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) carried out on January 15 drone and missile strikes in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, targeting facilities it claimed were affiliated with the Israeli Mossad. The IRGC stated that the attacks were in retaliation for recent terror incidents within Iran, specifically the twin bombings in Kerman, even though those were attributed to the Afghanistan branch of the Islamic State (ISIS-K). Additionally, Iran cited the killing of senior IRGC commanders in Syria, notably the death of Sayyed Razi Mousavi on December 25, as another reason for the reprisal.
The IRGC also claimed responsibility for missile strikes in Haram, Idlib Governorate, Syria, targeting ISIS, the al Nusra Front, and the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) on the same day as these groups allegedly used their facilities to train Afghanistan’s IS fighters, who carried out the recent attacks within Iran.
Finally, the IRGC conducted on January 16 drone and missile strikes on two Jaish ul-Adl headquarters in Koh Sabz, Baluchistan Province, Pakistan, in response to recent terrorist activity in southeastern Iran. Jaish al Adl, a Balochi Salafi-jihadi group operating on the Iranian border with Pakistan, carried out at least four attacks against Iranian security personnel within Iran from December 15, 2023, to January 16. Iranian officials had previously attributed the attack on December 15 to Israel.
Iran’s multiple attacks led Pakistan, in light of a violation of its territorial sovereignty, to respond by denouncing the strike as “an egregious violation of international law and the spirit of bilateral relations between Pakistan and Iran.” Two days later, on January 18, Pakistan carried out “a series of highly coordinated and specifically targeted precision military strikes.” These strikes targeted alleged separatist hideouts in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan regions, resulting in the death of at least ten individuals, all of whom were Pakistani nationals.
Meanwhile, Iraq took diplomatic action by recalling its ambassador from Tehran for consultations. Additionally, Iran's chargé d'affaires in Baghdad was summoned. Baghdad characterized the attack as “a blatant violation of the sovereignty of the Republic of Iraq.” Qassim al-Araji, the adviser for national security affairs to Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who leads a committee investigating the Irbil attack, dismissed Iran’s claim of targeting a Mossad headquarters as baseless.
Why it matters
By showing its strength and targeting things in Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan, Iran revealed that it has enemies other than just Israel. It also highlighted domestic problems, like the insurgency in the Baluchistan region, showing that Iran faces challenges both inside and outside its borders. However, Iran’s anxiety could potentially create new long-term tensions with its neighbors, a situation it wants to avoid because of its political efforts against Israel. This careful approach is a result of meticulous calculation, aiming to steer clear of a direct confrontation with Israel and the United States.
Israel-Hezbollah tensions escalating
Amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East following the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, the confrontations between Israel and Hezbollah on the Lebanese southern border are intensifying, raising concerns about a potential all-out war. I’ve written an analysis on this for The New Arab; you can find it here.
In dealing with deterrence operations related to the Gaza war, Hezbollah has rejected Washington’s initial proposals to pull its fighters back from the border. But the group remained open to U.S. diplomacy.
Although the military confrontation with Israel hasn’t escalated for now, Lebanese officials are collaborating with U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein to address the situation diplomatically.
Why it matters
This reflects Lebanon’s efforts to avoid a full-scale war in its territory, which is particularly challenging given the country’s lack of government, absence of a president, and enduring economic crisis.
The conflict in the Red Sea
What is causing more concern in the international community is the military clash between Yemen’s Houthis and the U.S. maritime coalitions in the Red Sea. This week’s confrontation led to military operations by both sides, prompting the U.S. to designate the Houthis as a global terror group on January 17. In February 2021, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken removed the Houthis from the list of “foreign terrorist organizations” and “specially designated global terrorists,” aiming to facilitate humanitarian aid to Yemen.
The U.S. assault suggests an acknowledgment by Washington that addressing the attacks on western shipping in the southern Red Sea requires repeated intervention due to the Yemeni group’s capacity and determination to resist. In response, the Houthis launched a missile at a U.S. navy destroyer (which was intercepted), targeted two commercial vessels with missiles causing minor damage, and directed a drone at a third, resulting in some damage but no injuries.
Why it matters
The Houthis appear to exploit the situation in the Red Sea. The movement’s leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, in his first speech since the U.S.-led intervention, expressed it as “a great honor” to be in direct confrontation with Israelis, Americans, and British. Asymmetric conflicts are not unprecedented, but the challenge lies in the U.S. and its allies’ ability to sustain bombing Houthi targets in Yemen for an extended period. The Houthis can still close the southern Red Sea to merchant shipping, imposing economic costs on the West and gaining political influence in the region. I wrote an analysis regarding this issue some weeks ago. Check it out here.
Israel-Hamas’s medicine and aid deal amid efforts to end the war
Qatar announced this week that Israel and Hamas reached an agreement, allowing the delivery of medicines to Israeli captives in the Gaza Strip and aid to residents.
Arab states are working on an initiative for a ceasefire and hostage release, offering Israel normalized relations for “irreversible” steps toward a Palestinian state. The plan, discussed with the US and European governments, includes recognizing a Palestinian state or supporting UN membership.
Despite international pressure to end the Gaza offensive, Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected calls to scale back and opposed the creation of a Palestinian state, drawing criticism from the White House.
Why it matters
Netanyahu’s opposition to a Palestinian state is not surprising, but Israel is losing public support from the US. Meanwhile, the EU adopted a resolution for a permanent ceasefire in Israel’s war against Hamas, conditional on dismantling Hamas and releasing hostages, essentially symbolically allowing Israel to continue operations.
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About me
My name is Dario Sabaghi, and I am a freelance journalist interested in international news focusing on the MENA region.
Check out my work at dariosabaghi.com.
You can follow me on Twitter: @DarioSabaghi
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Cover photo | ghoghnos.net