The War Nobody Wants and Netanyahu Needs
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At the time of writing, Israel reportedly launched an airstrike on Friday morning local time, targeting Iranian soil near a major airbase in Isfahan province.
Speaking to several news media outlets, senior U.S. officials confirmed the strikes.
This follows Iran’s unprecedented retaliatory attack on Israel last week, which involved about 330 precision-guided drones, ballistic missiles, and land-attack cruise missiles.
The attack came after Israel struck the Iranian consulate in Syria, resulting in the death of a top Iranian official on April 1.
Although the Israeli attack on Iranian territory is a breaking news story, and it will take time to understand the implications of the case as there is no clarity yet, it undoubtedly led to a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran.
The war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas following the latter’s attack on Israel on October 7 appears to be fading before this escalation, which has a more geopolitical reach.
The fear of a war between Iran and Israel, without assessing its potential political and military dynamics, is nevertheless distracting attention from the war in Gaza, where nearly 34,000 people were killed by Israel’s military operations.
The Israeli government is currently in negotiations with the U.S. regarding the assault in the southern city of Rafah, despite strong discouragement from the United States itself and its allies.
Although the news is shifting focus from the war in Gaza to the Israel-Iran confrontation, it’s worth analyzing how this escalation has been attempted to be averted by almost all parties in this potential regional conflict and why Israel, instead, seems to be pushing for it.
Over almost seven months of war in Gaza, Israel progressively changed tactics in confronting Hamas, Iran, and Hezbollah, killing officials in Lebanon and Syria with precision attacks.
However, the attack on Iran’s consulate has likely been a miscalculation by Israel, or alternatively, and depending on one’s perspective, it could be interpreted as a precise Israeli strategy aimed at widening the conflict.
Since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, which resulted in the deaths of more than 1,100 people, including civilians and security forces, and the abduction of over 200 people, some of whom were later released between October and November, Iran, while politically supporting Hamas’ initiative, refrained from being directly involved in a confrontation with Israel.
However, this stance became untenable following the killing of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi, among seven killed in Damascus earlier this month.
Hezbollah, soon after Israel’s initial bombing of Gaza, initiated a military engagement with Israel on Lebanon’s southern border as a deterrence and show of support for Hamas. This has become an almost daily routine with occasional escalations that break the silent rules of engagement between Israel and Hezbollah, raising the potential fear of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, Hezbollah also tried to avoid escalation with Israel by mostly targeting military targets, while Israel killed civilians and journalists during its attacks in Lebanese territory.
Despite continuing to support Israel politically and militarily, the U.S. and its allies have attempted to urge Israel to refrain from further military initiatives against Iran. They consider the minimal damage resulting from Iran’s attack on Israel as a success for Israel, as the latter claimed to have intercepted 99% of Iran’s attacks with the cooperation of its allies.
But as most of the players directly or indirectly involved in the growing tensions in the Middle East want to avoid a regional escalation that would likely imply a war between Iran and Israel, the Israeli government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be doing everything possible not to avoid escalation in the region.
For Israel, this seems like an opportunity to shift attention away from Gaza, where military operations are still ongoing. The attack on Rafah appears likely, as indirect negotiations with Hamas for the release of hostages and a ceasefire currently seem to be faltering.
From a political perspective, Netanyahu’s efforts to maintain high tensions serve as a lifeline for his political survival, especially with international and internal criticism mounting and the likelihood of resignation if the war ends. Netanyahu’s right-wing political allies are pushing him to maintain a hard line, acknowledging that if he hesitates, they may have the power to end his legislature.
However, Iran’s attack on Israel has revitalized support from Israel’s Western allies and temporarily alleviated isolation stemming from Israel’s war in Gaza. Nevertheless, a portion of public opinion remains unaffected by these diplomatic dynamics and continues to pressure for a ceasefire in Gaza.
Therefore, expanding a war for Israel would only mean an internal political gain for Netanyahu and his political allies. However, the success of this strategy would also depend on Iran’s approach, as it may overlook today’s Israeli attack on Iran in light of its initial statement following Iran’s attack on Israel last weekend, in which it stated that it considered its attack as a closed case amid tension between the two and that Iran’s response was calculated to avoid any major escalation.
But all scenarios are still open.
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About me
My name is Dario Sabaghi, and I am a freelance journalist interested in international news with a focus on the MENA region.
Check out my work at dariosabaghi.com.
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Cover photo | CBC