The Fear of Spillover Conflict in the Middle East Amid Israel-Hamas War in Gaza
Israel launches on-the-ground operation in Gaza, air attack on the Jabalia refugee camp, international community and humanitarian crisis, West Bank, and the potential escalation of the war.
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Israel launches on-the-ground operation in Gaza
On October 27, Israel launched its on-the-ground operation in the Gaza Strip. Instead of relying solely on airstrikes, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) introduced ground forces, including tanks, into the Hamas-led territory.
However, a full-scale ground invasion has not yet been launched, and the prospect of a specific date for such an operation remains uncertain.
Nevertheless, Israel is progressively intensifying its ground operations in Gaza, carrying out incursions into the territory and disrupting telecommunications services.
While Israel has claimed that it has encircled Gaza City from three sides and is engaged in close-quarters combat within the city, this has not halted the escalating bombings, which have resulted in the killing of about 9,000 Palestinians since the beginning of the war.
Israel's ground operations have not prevented Hamas from persisting in its attacks on Israel and conducting operations within Gaza against the IDF, which has reported at least 15 casualties in its ranks.
The conflict in Gaza is expected to shift towards guerrilla warfare, but there is some skepticism about the feasibility of Israel's ambitious plan to remove Hamas from Gaza as planned by Israel, as it would necessitate urban counter-insurgency tactics, which often result in higher casualties.
In Gaza, Hamas holds significant advantages, as urban environments tend to funnel attackers into predictable routes. These close-quarters battles make it extremely challenging to employ supporting assets like tanks, artillery, or air power, even in the absence of civilians in the area.
Israeli soldiers will likely encounter unfamiliar streets, narrow alleyways, extensive rubble from demolished buildings, and Hamas' intricate underground tunnel network. These tunnels, situated hundreds of feet below the surface, serve as storage for weapons, electrical generators, and command and control centers that are nearly undetectable from above. There have been instances, as seen in online videos, where these tunnels have been used for ambushes against the IDF.
Israeli air attack on the Jabalia refugee camp
The Israeli airstrike continued its operations, and on October 31, it targeted the Jabalia (also spelled Jabalya) refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip. This strike resulted in the deaths of hundreds of Palestinians, with varying estimates. Israel confirmed the strike, stating it targeted and killed a senior Hamas leader and claimed the group had an underground base in the area. However, the Indonesia Hospital reported that most casualties were women and children. The United Nations human rights office has expressed concern that this Israeli air attack on the Jabalia refugee camp may constitute a war crime, as the number of civilian casualties in the month-long conflict continues to rise.
The International community
While the U.S. House of Representatives approved on Thursday $14.5 billion in military aid for Israel as a robust response to the conflict with Hamas, the General Assembly adopted on October 26 a resolution calling for an immediate and sustained humanitarian truce leading to a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas. The resolution was adopted with 120 votes in favor, 14 against, and 45 abstentions.
Several South American countries, including Chile and Colombia, recalled in the last few days their ambassadors to Israel to protest Israel’s military operations against Hamas in Gaza, while Bolivia severed diplomatic ties with Israel, which it later criticized their decision.
The humanitarian crisis
Protests calling for a ceasefire have taken place around the world, reflecting international concern over the ongoing conflict.
This is due to the humanitarian crisis faced by Palestinians in Gaza. On Wednesday, hundreds of people with dual citizenship were set to depart from Gaza through the Rafah crossing, which is under Egypt's control. It marked the crossing's first opening since the war began on October 7.
Egypt has prepared a field hospital in Sheikh Zuwayed in the Sinai, according to reports. Ambulances could be seen waiting at the Rafah crossing.
With the partial reopening of the Rafah crossing at the southern Gaza border, injured Palestinians and numerous foreign nationals are to cross from Gaza into Egypt. However, only 20 trucks transporting humanitarian aid were allowed entry, a quantity that aid workers consider insufficient to address the unprecedented humanitarian crisis. Over 200 trucks carrying 3,000 tons of aid have been waiting nearby for several days.
The West Bank
But Gaza is not only the battlefield of the current conflict.
As the world's attention has focused on Gaza during the current conflict, the West Bank, a larger and more complex Palestinian-majority area, is experiencing a surge in violence. Heavily armed settler extremists have been operating with increasing boldness, leading to a spike in attacks against Palestinians and their property. Since October 7, settler violence has displaced over 800 Palestinians, and more than 120 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank, primarily in clashes with Israeli soldiers. The situation in the West Bank has been deteriorating for some time, with settler violence reaching its highest levels, and Palestinian youth protests are on the rise. The West Bank is highly volatile, and the concern is that if violence escalates there, it could open another front in the conflict and increase the risk of a larger regional conflict.
Potential escalation of the Israel-Hamas war
In fact, what most concerns the international community is the potential for a regional conflict, but we are already witnessing its gradual development.
The escalation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel along Lebanon's southern border is becoming more intense. Hezbollah carried out simultaneous attacks on 19 Israeli positions along the border on Thursday, prompting Israel to respond with a broad assault. This comes a day before Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, is expected to deliver a speech (scheduled to be aired today at 3 p.m., Beirut time). The conflict has also resulted in rockets being fired from Lebanon into Israel, injuring two people in the town of Kiryat Shmona. Nasrallah's speech is of interest beyond Lebanon, as he is a prominent figure in the "Axis of Resistance," an alliance led by Iran aimed at countering U.S. and Israeli influence. This coalition includes various groups, such as Shia Muslim Iraqi militias and Yemen's Houthis, who have become involved in the conflict by launching drones at Israel.
More sporadic have been the recent airstrikes on Israel coming from Syria, with Israel responding by targeting military installations in southwestern Syria. The United States has also conducted airstrikes in Syria in reaction to an increase in rocket and drone attacks on its forces in both Syria and Iraq, attributing these attacks to Iran-backed proxy groups. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has recently warned of potential regional escalation if Israel continues its military actions against Hamas, stating that "Muslims and resistance forces will become impatient, and no one can stop them."
The potential for a spillover effect from the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas is challenging to predict. It hinges on factors such as the scale of Israel's military operations, the impact on Palestinian civilians, and Israel's intentions regarding expanding its operations.
While Iran appears reluctant to become directly involved in escalating the conflict, Hezbollah's stance is more enigmatic.
Hezbollah has recently intensified and altered its tactics in the skirmish with Israel, resulting in casualties among its members. This escalation means that both parties' targets are located deeper within their territories rather than confined to the border.
It's essential to note that not only Hezbollah but also other groups, such as the Al-Qassam Brigades (the military wing of Hamas), Al-Quds Brigades (the military wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad), and smaller armed groups, have been involved in operations from Lebanon.
This front demands close attention because an increase in tensions between Israel, Hezbollah, and other groups in Lebanon could lead to an escalation of the conflict deep within Lebanese territory, as witnessed in 2006 when a war extended across most of Lebanon.
The other fronts mentioned above appear less likely to ignite full-scale conflicts. However, they may involve limited airstrikes and retaliatory skirmishes.
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About me
My name is Dario Sabaghi, and I am a freelance journalist interested in international news focusing on the MENA region.
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Cover photo | https://english.palinfo.com/57568