Israeli Ground Invasion Looms in Gaza Strip
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The Middle East has returned to the newsfeed of people around the world with the worst scenario possible: war.
The Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 has generated a series of events that have made not only Israel but all the region a ticking time bomb.
In its attack, Hamas killed over 1,400 people, between civilians and military personnel. But this time, Israel's retaliation has not consisted only of the bombing of Gaza, which has already killed over 3,000 Palestinians and wounded even more.
This time, Israel is planning an imminent on-the-ground invasion of Gaza using the Israeli Defense Forces, along with more than 300,000 reservists.
The humanitarian crisis in Gaza, which resulted from Israeli bombings and the complete blockade of the strip, severely limiting Palestinians' access to water and energy, has been exacerbated by Israel's order to evacuate the northern sector of the strip, which is from where the invasion will be likely launched from.
This crisis is the most severe the Palestinians have faced in the past years, and some analysts have even drawn parallels to the Nakba, should over 2 million Palestinians be compelled to cross the Rafah border into Egypt. However, as of today, this scenario appears unlikely.
But that's not all. The Israeli campaign against Hamas, which has had a real impact on Palestinians, has significantly heightened tensions in the Middle East. Arab countries have strongly condemned Israel's actions, and there is a potential for new conflict zones to emerge. Specifically, in the southern border of Lebanon, there have been exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel. Additionally, there is a remote possibility of a new frontline opening on the Israel-Syrian border, where several strike operations have already been conducted. Not to mention, the conflict in the West Bank has the potential to escalate further, with clashes between the Israeli army and Palestinians resulting in the deaths of over 50 Palestinians.
Among the many events that have unfolded today, one has garnered significant public attention: the bombing of the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital on October 17. This tragic incident resulted in the loss of hundreds of lives. Palestinian official sources have reported over 500 deaths, while other reports suggest the toll is between 100 and 300.
Both Israel and Hamas have pointed fingers at each other, each claiming the other party is responsible for the attack. In this matter, U.S. President Joe Biden has thrown his support behind Israel's claim that it was a misfire from Palestinian Islamic Jihad, another Palestinian armed group that cooperates with Hamas in various operations.
However, the truth is that there is not enough evidence to establish with absolute certainty who is the culprit of the massacre, voluntarily or involuntarily.
I have analyzed several pieces of footage, images, and geolocalization data, compared timestamps, and studied dozens of Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) analyses posted on X, Telegram, and other social networks. Some blamed Hamas, and others blamed Israel. None of them can establish with absolute certainty what or who caused the massacre. In other words, there is no 'smoking gun' as of today.
However, this has become a minor detail. The massacre at the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza has ignited widespread unrest throughout the Middle East, with violent protests taking place across the region and many pointing the blame at Israel, including Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan. In contrast, the U.S. and its allies stand by Israel's claims.
For a brief moment, there was a sense that the bombing of the Gaza hospital might have halted the Israeli ground invasion due to the international community's strong outcry.
But this situation didn't last long. The ground invasion appears imminent, as reported by major news outlets and experts.
The official goal of the Israeli ground invasion is to dismantle Hamas's presence in Gaza, including its infrastructure. Whether Israel will achieve this goal is uncertain, but it is clear that it won't be an easy task due to multiple factors.
However, in addition to the military aspects of this operation, significant attention is focused on the reactions of other players in the region, particularly Hezbollah. Their response could potentially escalate the current situation with Israel and lead to a full-scale conflict, with a realistic risk of dragging Lebanon into a war.
Whether the Israeli invasion will mark the end of Hamas in Gaza is uncertain. However, it is certain that it won't spell the end of Palestinian armed resistance. To better understand why, I invite you to read my latest analysis published on The New Arab.
Beyond the potential escalation of the conflict at the regional level, what is concerning is the future of the Gaza Strip and its Palestinian population. Israel appears to lack a clear 'exit strategy' from this conflict. The scenario of a full occupation of Gaza seems unlikely at the moment, as it would come at a high cost for Israel (assuming the invasion is successful).
But what is certain is that the humanitarian crisis resulting from this invasion is expected to be severe. Similar situations have occurred in the past, and this time, the Palestinian death toll could be even higher. In any case, Palestinians will have to contend with the aftermath and the state of their territory following the invasion.
The intensity of the Israeli invasion in Gaza and the resulting devastation could play a pivotal role in influencing the responses of other regional actors. Arab countries are keen to prevent any spillover of conflict, a sentiment that was affirmed by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his recent Middle East tour. He held meetings with several regional players in anticipation of U.S. President Joe Biden's visit to Israel in support of Israel's initiative.
It appears that Israel may have certain guidelines to follow to avoid further regional escalation.
However, the greatest uncertainty concerning the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East revolves around Hezbollah and Iran, as they introduce different dynamics into the situation.
The Israeli ground invasion could potentially escalate the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel on the Lebanese southern border, with the involvement of Hamas in the Levantine country. However, it remains unclear how this front might evolve, whether it will involve continued exchanges of fire or on-the-ground, sea, and air incursions. Additionally, it's uncertain whether it may be limited to the South or spread across the entire Lebanese territory, a scenario not to be dismissed given what occurred during the 2006 Lebanese war.
Regarding the potential involvement of Iran in the conflict, it's difficult to assess at the moment. There is currently no concrete evidence to suggest its direct involvement.
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About me
My name is Dario Sabaghi, and I am a freelance journalist interested in international news focusing on the MENA region.
Check out my work at dariosabaghi.com.
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Cover photo | AP - livemint.com