Could Iran’s Vowed Retaliation Threaten Gaza Ceasefire Talks?
The assassination of the Hamas leader has heightened regional tensions, with Iran threatening retaliation against Israel. Will this jeopardize the Gaza ceasefire talks?
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The assassinations of Fuad Shukr, a Hezbollah commander killed by Israel in Beirut on July 30, and Ismail Haniyeh, chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in Tehran in the early hours of July 31, have sparked a potential escalation in the region that hasn’t been seen since the start of the war in Gaza.
The killing of Haniyeh on Iranian soil has prompted Iran to vow retaliation against Israel, creating a potentially more serious situation than the events of April 13. On that day, Iran and its allies launched a retaliatory attack against Israel, involving around 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles targeting Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. This was in response to the Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1, which resulted in the deaths of two Iranian generals.
This time, however, the situation is different. Iran accuses Israel of assassinating the Hamas political leader on its own territory, despite Israel confirming the attack in Beirut but not the one in Tehran.
This has triggered a wave of tension that has international players holding their breath amid the ongoing war in Gaza.
Diplomacy at work
While you may have read that no one wants an escalation between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, let alone with Iran, the risk of miscalculation over the rules of engagement from both sides is around the corner.
It remains unclear when and how Iran and Hezbollah will retaliate against Israel, but it’s certain that multiple diplomatic efforts are underway to prevent such a miscalculation and to force Iran to pursue a measured response.
The United States is increasing its military presence in the region to both defend Israel and serve as a deterrent to Iran. At the same time, regional diplomacy and calls from U.S. officials to Middle East leaders have intensified, aiming to contain Iran’s anticipated retaliation against Israel. The U.S. is urging Iran, Hezbollah, and Israel to exercise “maximum restraint” and emphasizing its commitment to containing the situation.
Another unexpected actor pressing Iran to avoid escalation is Jordan. Jordan’s Foreign Minister, Ayman Safadi, concluded a rare visit to Iran last week with a plea to end the violence and allow the region to live in “peace, security, and stability.” Safadi’s visit follows ongoing diplomatic efforts by the U.S. and its partners to prevent further regional escalation after the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran.
Russia, which condemned Haniyeh’s killing, has also sent Sergei Shoigu, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, amid Middle East tensions. While Russian news agencies reported that the visit was pre-planned, the timing is highly strategic. Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly urged Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to exercise restraint following the assassination, allegedly carried out by Israel, advising against attacks on civilians, according to two senior Iranian sources cited by Reuters.
Sinwar becomes Hamas’s new political chief
The assassination of Haniyeh has not only triggered a potential escalation in the region but also exposed Iran’s security vulnerabilities, making it almost inevitable for Iran to retaliate against Israel. However, the killing has also led Hamas to appoint Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza and the mastermind behind the October 7 attacks on Israel, as its new leader. This is seen as a setback for Israel, as Sinwar is considered even more hardline than Haniyeh, which could complicate future negotiations.
Soon after his appointment, Sinwar, The National reported, reached out to Egyptian mediators to set out several conditions for a ceasefire to end the war, including a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the release of prominent Palestinian detainees. Sinwar also made it clear to the Egyptians that he strongly opposed the Palestinian Authority taking control of Gaza after the conflict and expressed his firm opposition to the idea of a multinational force being deployed in Gaza after the war to maintain security until elections are conducted.
Iran’s vowed retaliation amid Gaza ceasefire talks
In this context, the assassination of Haniyeh, the appointment of Sinwar, and the anticipated Iranian response against Israel could jeopardize ongoing ceasefire talks in Gaza and complicate the release of the remaining 115 Israeli hostages. It’s important to note that Hezbollah’s involvement and the potential escalation by the group against Israel are closely tied to the negotiation outcomes. Hezbollah had made clear it will only cease its military operations against Israel if a ceasefire agreement is reached between Israel and Hamas.
Is this also the case for Iran? The Iranian Mission to the United Nations told Al-Monitor that Iran’s planned retaliation against Israel will be executed in a way that does not hinder a potential ceasefire in Gaza. This indicates that Tehran might be reassessing the timing or scale of the “harsh punishment” that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has promised in response to the recent assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran.
Renewed negotiations
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office announced that an Israeli delegation will participate in ceasefire negotiations with Hamas on August 15. This announcement came right after the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar jointly called for the resumption of talks next week, aiming for a swift agreement. However, it remains uncertain whether Sinwar’s hardline position might further complicate the finalization of these negotiations.
Indirect talks between Israel and Hamas, mediated by the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt, have failed to reach an agreement on a permanent ceasefire that includes a prisoner swap. Israel has rejected the term “permanent ceasefire” because it would undermine its primary goal of eliminating Hamas in Gaza. Additionally, Hamas has demanded an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza-Egypt border area, a demand that Netanyahu has rejected.
In this context, the timing and nature of Iranian and Hezbollah military responses are crucial for assessing their impact on the negotiations. If such responses occur before the talks are finalized, their strength could introduce new tensions and create more dangerous scenarios, potentially derailing the talks. Conversely, if the responses come after the negotiations, they might jeopardize the stability of the ceasefire. Additionally, Sinwar’s position on the negotiations remains a key factor that could further complicate reaching a final agreement.
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My name is Dario Sabaghi. I am a freelance journalist interested in international news, with a focus on the MENA region.
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Cover photo: WANA/Reuters