How Will Biden Respond to the Killing of U.S. Troops in Jordan?
This week: How the U.S. will respond to the killing of its troops in Jordan, UNRWA's funds cut over Israel's allegations, Israel starts flooding Hamas tunnels, and much more.
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Who targeting, when, where, and how are the unfolding questions that the United States has to answer before pulling the trigger following the killing of three U.S. troops in Jordan.
U.S. President Joe Biden faces pressure from Republicans in Congress to strike Iran, as Iran-backed militias in the region have targeted U.S. outposts.
However, the U.S. administration has to carefully calculate the broader impact of the response.
Both the U.S. and Iran want to avoid escalation in the region and a direct confrontation. But at the same time, from the U.S. perspective, the response must be significant to meet the public demand for retaliation.
The scenarios that may unfold include the targeting of top officials of Iran-backed militias or their infrastructure and strategic resources.
The U.S. might even contemplate eliminating top officials of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The assassination of key military players would mirror a new strategy recently pursued by Israel, targeting top commanders and officials of Hamas, IRGC, and Hezbollah, following the U.S. urging Israel to adopt a more low-intensity approach in Gaza.
However, the U.S. must not only avoid miscalculations that could escalate tensions in the region but also ensure that the response doesn’t impact the ongoing Qatar-brokered negotiations between Hamas and Israel for a potential ceasefire.
A direct U.S. strike on Iran’s territory, advocated by some Republicans, would be unprecedented. Even former President Donald Trump, who spearheaded a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran during his tenure in the White House, initially planned but later called off direct strikes on Iran in 2019 following Iran’s downing of a U.S. surveillance drone. It’s crucial to recall that when Trump ordered the killing of Qasem Soleimani, an Iranian major general, on January 3, 2020, it occurred through an American drone strike near Baghdad International Airport in Iraq, not within Iran.
The options on the table for the U.S. administration may involve responding proportionally by targeting Iran’s “axis of resistance” rather than directly attacking Iran on its soil.
The Biden administration could choose from a range of alternatives that stop short of hitting Iran directly. This includes striking its paramilitary Quds Force personnel in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, targeting Iranian ships at sea, or launching a significant attack on the Iranian-backed militia group deemed responsible.
A more remote option would be hitting Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran’s most precious asset in terms of deterring Israel, but this is currently unlikely. Although considering a series of economic sanctions that would further exacerbate Iran’s economy may be an option, this scenario would have much less impact on public opinion.
Top Stories of the Week
U.S. Troops Killed in Drone Attack in Jordan
A drone attack targeted the outpost called Tower 22 in Jordan on Sunday, January 28, located at the convergence of the borders of Syria, Iraq, and Jordan. This resulted in the killing of three U.S. troops, with several others wounded.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, representing various Iran-backed militant groups, claimed responsibility for attacks on three bases, including one along the Jordan-Syria border.
Initial reports suggest that the U.S. forces might have misidentified an enemy drone as an American one, leading to no attempts to intercept the drone that struck the outpost.
Following the attack, there has been mounting pressure on U.S. President Joe Biden to retaliate against Iran despite Tehran denying any involvement.
President Biden announced this week that a response to the attack is imminent, but details were not provided.
However, it seems unlikely that the retaliation will occur within Iran’s territory. Both the U.S. and Tehran appear inclined to avoid a direct confrontation, particularly amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.
Meanwhile, Kata’ib Hezbollah, a component of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, declared a suspension of military operations against the U.S.
Why it matters
This is the first time that U.S. troops were killed since the start of the Gaza war, which led to heightened military tensions in the region. In Iraq and Syria, U.S. forces have been engaged in conflicts with Iran-backed militias, with numerous skirmishes occurring between the two parties. The death of U.S. troops places the U.S. in a position to consider retaliatory measures against Iran or its proxy militias. However, any retaliation must be carefully calculated to prevent an escalation of the conflict in the region. For the U.S., it is also crucial to avoid disrupting the ongoing negotiations brokered by Qatar between Israel and Hamas.
UNRWA Funds Cut Over Alleged Involvement of its Employees in October 7 Hamas Attack
Just after the International Court of Justice’s ruling on South Africa’s genocide case against Israel, Israel announced that it compiled evidence indicating the involvement of numerous UNRWA employees in Gaza in the October 7 attack by Hamas.
A six-page dossier claims that approximately 190 UNRWA employees, including teachers, served as militants for Hamas or Islamic Jihad. The document includes names and photos of 12 individuals implicated, accused of involvement in a kidnapping, assisting the removal of dead soldiers, and participating in the attacks.
However, there is no public disclosure of evidence supporting Israel’s claims, as the findings are yet to be independently verified.
Nevertheless, these allegations prompted the United States, the European Union, and several European countries to freeze funds allocated to UNRWA.
Philippe Lazzarini, the Commissioner-General of UNRWA, announced the immediate termination of contracts for the implicated staff members to safeguard the agency’s ability to provide humanitarian assistance. A UNRWA investigation will be launched promptly to establish the truth. Lazzarini didn’t disclose the number of employees involved or the nature of their alleged participation but emphasized that any UNRWA employee engaged in acts of terror would be held accountable, potentially facing criminal prosecution.
Why it matters
Most of UNRWA’s funding relies on voluntary contributions, primarily from donor states, with the U.S. being the largest contributor.
Discontinuing UNRWA funds during the Gaza war jeopardizes a crucial lifeline for Palestinians amid an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.
With uncertainty surrounding the majority of its budget and UNRWA spending contributions as they arrive, the agency warns of a potential halt in operations within weeks if funding is not reinstated.
UNRWA plays a pivotal role in the humanitarian response in Gaza.
Although an immediate impact may not be apparent with the halt of funds, it poses the risk of a humanitarian catastrophe and famine in the Gaza Strip.
Moreover, in the long term, it could adversely affect UNRWA’s operations in other countries where Palestinian refugees reside, including the West Bank, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.
Israel Confirms Military Has Started Flooding Hamas Tunnels
The Israeli military announced on Tuesday, January 30, the start of water pumping into the extensive tunnel network beneath Gaza, utilized by Hamas for launching attacks, weapon storage, and detaining Israeli hostages.
Since the start of the war in Gaza, Israeli military sources reported the discovery of underground chambers where some of the 240 hostages taken to Gaza after the Hamas-led assault on October 7 have been held.
Despite weeks of Israeli efforts, up to 80% of Hamas’s intricate tunnel network remains intact, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.
This poses a challenge to Israel’s primary objectives, as disabling these tunnels, stretching over 300 miles, would deprive Hamas of secure storage for weapons, hiding places for fighters, command-and-control centers, and the ability to move undetected within the territory.
Assessing the extent of tunnel destruction has proven challenging for Israel, mainly due to uncertainties about the total tunnel length.
Why it matters
The military’s recent statement marks its first public acknowledgement of employing the controversial strategy of flooding tunnels, a method some military officials deem ineffective. The U.N. has cautioned that this approach could potentially harm Gaza’s drinking water and sewage systems.
Israel has pursued diverse techniques to eliminate the tunnels, encompassing the installation of pumps to flood them with water from the Mediterranean, utilizing airstrikes and liquid explosives for destruction, deploying dogs and robots for searches, demolishing entrances, and conducting raids with highly trained soldiers.
Israeli Ministers Join Event Calling for Resettlement of Gaza
Several members of the Israeli government participated in a far-right conference organized by the Nahala organization, advocating for the resettlement of the Gaza Strip and the occupied West Bank.
The conference, named “Settlement Brings Security and Victory,” took place on Sunday night and emphasized the construction of new Jewish settlements in Palestinian territories.
The politicians and activists convened in occupied East Jerusalem to make this call amid international pressure on Israel to affirm its commitment to recognizing Palestinian statehood following the conclusion of its conflict with Gaza.
Why it matters
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims that Israel isn’t planning to establish a permanent presence in Gaza but emphasizes the intent to maintain security control indefinitely.
The Biden administration expresses concern over Israel’s proposal to create a one-kilometer buffer zone inside Gaza, fearing it might be used for rebuilding settlements that were dismantled during the 2005 Israeli pullout from the enclave.
In 2005, in fact, Israel withdrew its military and settlers from the Gaza Strip after a 38-year occupation. The ongoing debate revolves around determining the administration of the enclave after the war.
Pakistan and Iran to Expand Security Collaboration Leaving Behind Missile Strikes
Pakistan and Iran aimed to improve relations after recent missile strikes, expressing mutual respect for sovereignty. The foreign ministers discussed combating terrorism in their regions and establishing consultative mechanisms. Despite historical tensions, both nations emphasized understanding, with no past territorial disputes or wars.
Why it matters
Following the missile strikes, relations between the two countries deteriorated, leading to the recall of ambassadors, cancellation of diplomatic and trade engagements, and restrictions on their return.
However, swift efforts were made to de-escalate tensions.
Pakistan claimed the strikes targeted the Baloch Liberation Front and Baloch Liberation Army separatist bases, while Iran stated it targeted militants from the Jaish al Adl (JAA) group.
These militant groups operate in the restive, mineral-rich, and underdeveloped regions of Balochistan in Pakistan and Sistan-Baluchestan in Iran.
That’s a wrap for this week! Thank you for joining Inshallah! Don’t forget to share and subscribe.
About me
My name is Dario Sabaghi, and I am a freelance journalist interested in international news focusing on the MENA region.
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