From Wheat to Weapons: The Impact of Russia's One-Year War in Ukraine on the Middle East
From Wheat to Weapons: The Impact of Russia's One-Year War in Ukraine on the Middle East
How Russia's year-long war in Ukraine has reshaped the Middle East.
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From Wheat to Weapons: The Impact of Russia's One-Year War in Ukraine on the Middle East
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has destabilized the current international order.
It has been one year since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated, devastatingly impacting the region.
The conflict has affected the Middle East in multiple ways, from the wheat crisis to Iran's involvement, Turkey's role, the Gulf countries' oil, and the Saudi Arabia-USA tensions.
The wheat crisis
One of the first consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Middle East and North Africa region was linked to the wheat crisis. With Ukraine being one of the world's largest wheat exporters, the conflict has disrupted the wheat supply chain. This, in turn, has caused a rise in wheat prices in the Middle East, leading to food insecurity and economic challenges for the region, especially in Egypt and Lebanon.
In this context, Turkey played a pivotal role in making an agreement with Russia, Ukraine, and the United Nations to unblock the Black Sea for Ukrainian exports of grains.
Moscow originally agreed to unblock Ukraine's ports to allow grain export back in the summer, when Russia appeared to have the advantage in the war.
It was also in Russia's interests to agree to the deal. The simultaneous loosening of sanctions allowed exports of Russia's own grain and fertilizer, which wasn't officially billed as part of the deal.
Turkey's role
Turkey has emerged as a significant player in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Its strategic position at the crossroads of Europe and Asia has allowed it to act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, as well as supply weapons and provide security support for Ukraine.
However, Turkey's approach has also presented challenges, such as its unwillingness to join Western sanctions against Russia and its prioritization of national interests.
While Turkey's efforts to mediate a broader peace agreement between Moscow and Kyiv failed, its successful negotiation of the grain deal has yet to be fully proven.
Iran's involvement
As one of Russia's allies in the Middle East, Iran has been providing military support to the Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. Russia has used Iranian-made kamikaze drones in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The conflict has seen tens of thousands of deaths on both sides, and the use of Iranian drones has drawn condemnation from Ukraine and its allies.
While Iran denies selling its drones to Russia and their use in the Ukraine conflict, it is widely accepted that the drones are Iranian-made. Russian intelligence services have reportedly demanded that Iran sell thousands of its drones for use in Ukrainian territories.
Some Iranian political analysts believe Iran has no choice but to support Russia due to their increasing dependence on Russia for political and economic needs.
Russia and Iran have a long history of political coordination, and both countries are currently using each other to advance their interests.
The ambiguity of Gulf Countries
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries remained neutral during the Western sanctions placed on Russia for its war on Ukraine starting in 2022, although the United States has been pressuring its Middle Eastern allies to choose between Russia and the West.
Most Gulf states have remained ambiguous, but this approach allowed the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to facilitate negotiations and benefit from their relationships with both the United States and Russia.
The GCC's neutral position provided economic and political opportunities while the global political and economic effects of the Russian invasion continued to disrupt global supply chains and energy markets in the Middle East.
The GCC adopted an "every person for themselves" approach to international policy and was willing to work with different countries as long as it was advantageous to their economies.
This approach extended to other markets, including finance and real estate, with a high influx of Russian investment poured into the region.
However, MENA countries understand that MENA producers can only meet future European renewable energy demands.
European countries are seeking new energy partnerships with Middle Eastern and North African countries due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on Russia.
European leaders are visiting energy-rich countries in the region to forge strategic partnerships to reduce reliance on Russian energy.
Russia and the Middle East
Russia has established stronger ties with the Middle East despite the Ukrainian conflict, particularly in arms sales, building nuclear plants, and convening summits.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has been well-received in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Russia's nuclear company, Rosatom, is constructing a nuclear power plant in Egypt.
Russian wheat now makes up 57% of the country's total imports, with Egypt more dependent than ever on Russia.
Wealthy Russians have moved to Dubai since the invasion and were Dubai's top real estate buyers in 2022.
The U.S. is sending a treasury official to both Turkey and the UAE to pressure them to cut commercial ties with Russia.
However, Russia's growing ties with the Middle East are seen as a way to prepare for the big showdown expected to come between China and the U.S.
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About me
My name is Dario Sabaghi, and I am a freelance journalist interested in international news focusing on the MENA region.
Check out my work at dariosabaghi.com.
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Cover photo: Google