Focus: A Brief Guide to Turkey's 2023 General Election
How Turkey's elections work, the candidates, the key issues, trends, polls, and possible scenarios.
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Before we delve into the Turkish general election, take a look at my latest article published on Deutsche Welle. In the article, I investigate the rise in the price of Lebanon's olive oil due to the country's economic crisis and hyperinflation. The crisis has turned a staple food like olive oil, which is the base of Lebanese cuisine, into a luxury food for many.
Millions will head to the poll on Sunday, May 14, to vote in Turkey's general election, considered the toughest test for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the most important election of this year.
Despite the current economic challenges facing the country, Erdogan's opponents are taking advantage of the situation. Nevertheless, Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) continue to enjoy substantial support from significant portions of nationalist and religious conservative groups, particularly in Turkey's central Anatolian region. who see a victory for the opposition as a potential return to a time when they felt marginalized.
I have compiled a brief guide to understand the importance of this election, its mechanisms, the candidates and their political agendas, and the key issue of the campaign debate.
How Turkey's Presidential and parliamentarian elections work
Turkey's presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14 will involve 64.1 million voters worldwide. Among them, 32.3 million are female, and 31.8 million are male. Polling stations will be open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.
The Turkish presidential election follows a two-round voting system, where a candidate must secure more than 50% of the nationwide vote to win. If no candidate reaches this threshold, a run-off is held between the two top vote-getters from the first round, which will take place on May 28. The ballot lists the candidates' names, party affiliations, and photographs, and voters indicate their choice with a "yes" stamp. The elected president serves a five-year term and cannot be removed from office before the end of the mandate.
Turkey's parliamentary election will select 600 members for The Grand National Assembly, representing 87 electoral districts across 81 provinces. The number of seats allocated to each district is proportional to its population, and voters cast their ballots for political parties and their nominated candidates. Ballots contain party names and symbols, with alliance names included if applicable. A majority of 301 seats is needed to form a government. A party must secure at least 7% of the valid nationwide vote to obtain seats on its own or as part of an alliance.
The Supreme Electoral Council (YSK) announces the results nationally after all votes are counted.
Who are the candidates and what are their political agendas
There are Four candidates officially running in Turkey's 2023 presidential election.
 Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Erdogan is running for the People's Alliance, a coalition between his AK Party and other right-wing parties. Erdogan served as Turkey's prime minister for 11 years before becoming president in 2014 and led Turkey's economic and institutional transformation in the early 2000s. He has earned support from his followers for improving their lives and strengthening Turkey's international position. However, his popularity has waned due to the country's struggling economy in recent years. He has also faced criticism for suppressing opposition groups, although government supporters argue that it was necessary following a 2016 coup attempt and the threat from terrorist groups. Erdogan's political agenda centers around maintaining the presidential system, reducing interest rates, and establishing Turkey as a strong, independent player in the region.
Kemal Kilicdaroglu
Kilicdaroglu, running for the Nation Alliance, which comprises six opposition parties, is seen as Erdogan's main challenger. However, he is accused of being too close to the West. His political campaign focused on solving the Kurdish issue, returning to a "strong parliamentary system," sending Syrian refugees back home, and aligning closer with the EU and US. However, critics say that his history of election defeats shows he is not strong enough to lead Turkey.
Muharrem Ince
Ince, who is running as an independent, is calling for a coalition between Turkish social democrats and secular nationalists against "Islamist" parties, and his political agenda includes repatriating refugees and promoting secularism.
Sinan Ogan
Ogan is the candidate of the nationalist Ancestral Alliance (ATA) of four parties., and has been accused of having xenophobic and far-right policies, particularly regarding Syrian refugees. In fact, he aims to send refugees back to their home countries and stresses that Turkey must pay special attention to the Turkic states.Â
What are the election's campaign key issues
We can condense the election campaign into four main key issues.
Economy
The interest rate cuts in late 2021 caused a currency crisis and led to an inflation rate of 85.51%, the highest in 24 years. However, Erdogan's supporters argue that he has transformed Turkey's economy, improved infrastructure, and prioritized the development of neglected regions.
Refugees
The election campaigns have been marked by anti-refugee sentiment, fueling reports of violence, abuse, and crime between Syrian and Turkish communities. The government claims that out of 5.5 million foreigners in Turkey, 3.7 million are Syrian refugees, and opposition candidates have been exploiting the growing hostility towards refugees.
Earthquakes
On February 6, two massive earthquakes hit southeast Turkey, resulting in more than 50,000 deaths and widespread destruction, affecting an estimated 14 million people, or 16% of the population. Erdogan's opponents accuse his government of being slow to respond and failing to enforce building codes, contributing to the high death toll. However, in his reelection campaign, Erdogan promised the reconstruction of the affected areas and pledged to build 319,000 homes within a year.
Democracy
Critics of Erdogan claim that he has reversed the democratic progress in Turkey, particularly after the 2016 failed coup, which resulted in the arrest of thousands of people. They also contend that the freedom of the press has worsened, with 90% of all Turkish media outlets being under the control of the government and individuals with close ties to Erdogan.
What election trends and opinion polls say
The opinion polls published in April show that Kilicdaroglu, the main opposition candidate, leads the presidential race but may not surpass the 50% threshold, leading to a possible second round. In the 2018 election, Erdogan won the presidency in the first round with over 52% of the vote.
Possible scenarios
With 26 parties competing in the parliamentary campaign, the ruling People's Alliance is still expected to win more seats than the Nation Alliance. However, a hung parliament is a possible outcome, with the pro-Kurdish YSP holding a strong bargaining position. The results will have significant political implications, with Erdogan potentially spinning any result in his favor. A cohabitation scenario under either leader as president would lead to a very contentious period in Turkey's polarized political arena.
Read more on the Middle East Institute.
Turkey's elections from the West's perspective
The upcoming Turkish Presidential and parliamentarian elections are not only a crucial test of democracy against authoritarianism, but they also present an opportunity for Western investors. If Erdogan's opposition wins, there could be a market rally and an influx of international investors, despite Turkey facing economic challenges. However, the country's anti-Western sentiment, combined with a government narrative of accusing the opposition of being instruments of the West, make any EU or US intervention a risky move due to Turkey's susceptibility to conspiracy theories and distrust of outsiders.
Read more on the European Council of Foreign Relations.
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About me
My name is Dario Sabaghi, and I am a freelance journalist interested in international news focusing on the MENA region.
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